Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Tampa Bay Rays -103

The Tampa Bay Rays just got several key hitters back from injury.  They have gone 8-4 in their last 12 games overall while scoring at least 4 runs in nine of those 12 games, including five straight.  The Boston Red Sox have several hitters sitting due to injury and are really struggling at the plate.  They are averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last eight games.  They have been held to 3 runs or fewer in nine of their last 12 games.

Zack Littell will shut down the Red Sox tonight.  Littell has posted a 3.02 ERA in eight starts this season while allowing just 15 earned runs and 3 homers in 44 2/3 innings.  He has a 2.35 ERA on the road while allowing just 4 earned runs and zero homers in 15 1/3 innings on the highway.

Cooper Criswell is averaging just 4.7 innings per start in his five starts this season and can't be trusted to go deep into this one.  That will put a lot of pressure on Boston's bullpen, which is certainly taxed coming into this contest after playing in five straight games that were decided by 2 runs or fewer.  Bet the Rays Thursday.

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20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-145)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are 17-5 in their last 22 games overall with 15 wins by 2 runs or more.  They have one of the best lineups in baseball and are scoring 5.7 runs per game at home this season.

The Cincinnati Reds are a mess right now.  They have gone 2-12 in their last 14 games overall.  A big reason for their struggles is injuries up and down their lineup as they are struggling to score runs.  They have been held to 4 runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including 2 runs or fewer in seven of those.

Tyler Glasnow is among the favorites to win the NL Cy Young this year.  Glasnow is 6-1 with a 2.53 ERA and 0.86 WHIP while allowing just 16 earned runs and 49 base runners in 57 innings with a whopping 73 K's.

He'll be opposed by Brent Suter, who will be making his first start of the season for the Reds, who will be making this a bullpen game.  Suter is 0-2 with a 17.34 ERA and 3.43 WHIP in two career starts against the Dodgers, allowing 9 earned runs and 16 base runners in 4 2/3 innings.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on Mets/Phillies OVER 8

The Philadelphia Phillies are hitting the cover off the ball right now.  They have scored at least 4 runs in 11 of their last 12 games overall.  The New York Mets have scored at least 4 runs in eight of their last 12 games overall.  I expect both teams to get to 4-plus runs against these two suspect starting pitchers.

Jose Quintana is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with an 8.19 ERA and 1.98 WHIP in four road starts.  Quintana has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 10 innings in his last two starts against the Phillies.

Taijaun Walker is 3-0 with a 4.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in three starts this season, already allowing 4 homers in 18 2/3 innings.  Walker allowed 4 earned runs in 7 innings in his last start against the Mets.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* Nuggets/Timberwolves ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota -2

We are getting the Minnesota Timberwolves at a discount tonight after losing the last three games of this series.  This has been the most resilient team in the NBA this season as that was actually the first time they have lost three consecutive games all season.  I trust their resolve here to get the job done in Game 6 at home and force a Game 7.

Mike Conley Jr. was a surprise scratch in Game 5 with an Achilles injury.  I think they played it cautious knowing their season wasn't on the line and that they would have a Game 6 at home.  Conley was present a shootaround today.  He makes all the difference for this team and takes a lot of pressure off Anthony Edwards Jr.  They need him to run the offense, space the floor and his elite defense on the other end.

The Nuggets can't keep up this torrid shooting against the best defense in the NBA in the Timberwolves.  They shot 53.7% in Game 3, 57% in Game 4 and 55% in Game 5.  That includes a combined 36-of-77 (46.8%) from 3-point range in those three wins.  They are due some negative shooting regression to say the least.

Denver is 19-35 ATS in its last 54 games off three or more consecutive wins.  Minnesota is 46-28 ATS in its last 74 games when revenging a loss.  Bet the Timberwolves in Game 6 Thursday.